Cool or Cold following 2015-2016 El Nino Collapse (Updated 7/1/2016)

NOAA recently released the following statement: “After dominating the tropical Pacific for more than a year, El Niño ended in May 2016. Near- or below-average temperatures existed in 3 out of 4 ENSO monitoring regions of the tropical Pacific. And for the first time in 2016, wind and air pressure patterns were consistent with neutral conditions. There’s a 75% chance that La Niña will develop by winter.”

NOAA also says that “ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) is one of the most important climate phenomena on Earth due to its ability to change the global atmospheric circulation, which in turn, influences temperature and precipitation across the globe.” An El Nino is created when the Pacific Ocean near the equator is not able to dissipate heat as efficiently as it normally does. This time around the El Nino is collapsing faster than normal with concurrent drops in ocean surface and land temperature.

What frustrates those who know what is happening are the outrageous claims that the record warm temperatures in 2015 and 2016 were caused by climate change – with nary a word about El Nino. Climatologist and oceanographer Dr. Fredolin Tangang of the University Kebangsaan Malaysia and vice-chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from 2008 to 2015, warned that El Nino and climate change are not related. Says Dr. Tangang, “There is no conclusive evidence that the occurrence of El Nino (frequency and intensity) is influenced by climate change.”
 
Of course, the news about the record-breaking heat of 2015 and 2016 allegedly caused by climate change is now a fact in the public’s mind. The scientists and radical environmentalists feeding the false information to an eager media knew that climate change was not the cause, yet they did it anyway. The bottom line—they successfully lied. That has become the norm for any news on climate change. Don’t believe a word they say.



The June 2016 anomaly is well below the dashed red line which represents the average cooling rate required for the rest of 2016 to tie 1998 as the warmest year in the satellite record.

The equatorial ocean and atmospheric temperature comparison from January to June 2016 clearly show that we are entering into a La Nina event that should mature late summer or early fall. Like the La Nina that followed the super El Nino of 2007-2008, the emerging La Nina is likely to be cool and long-lasting.  The global temperature has dropped a “spectacular” -0.37^oC in two months –the second largest drop in the record. For 2016 to be warmer than the warmest year of 1998, the temperature must decline much slower than it is (See graphic above). From 2007 until late 2015 there was no statistical global warming. Except this time the earth may not recover to its former warmth and may, in fact plummet From 2007 until late 2015 there was no statistical global warming. Except this time the earth may not recover to its former warmth and may, in fact plummet.
 

The number of sunspots per 11 year solar cycle has been
sharply declining for the past three cycles. Some solar scientists 
are warning there may be a maximum of 30-60 sunspots in
cycles  25 and 26—the same as occurred in the Little Ice Age.

A growing number of scientists are concerned because the sun is going into a rare 206 year  “Bicentennial  Cycle” of little to no sunspot activity accompanied by a decades-long deep cooling period. The current 11 year solar cycle (Number 24) has the lowest maximum number of sunspots (116) since cycle 14 in 1906 which had a maximum of 107. The “normal” maximum number of sunspots in a solar cycle is 150 to 200. Even at 116 sunspots there have been only a few cycles that had smaller maximum sunspot activity than Cycle 24. Those cycles were concurrent with what history calls the “Little Ice Age.” Cycle 25 which should start in about 6 years, could have much lower sunspot numbers—and colder temperatures. 





A low maximum number of sunspots have a high correlation with

very cold periods in earth's history. Although Galileo didn't perfect

the telescope to be able to actually see sunspots until the

early 1600s, and sunspots were not continuously counted until

1850, there is ample evidence that earth's cold cycles were

correlated with low sunspot activity long before the 1600s.





Why is this important? During the Little Ice Age (approximately from 1300 to 1825) there were massive famines, disease and misery. Hopefully, modern agriculture can overcome the short growing seasons and modern medicine and pest control can keep plagues under control. However, a lot depends on how cold it gets, or even if it gets cold. That is the problem with trying to predict future climate—even when the 206 year cycle of cold is 100 percent correlated with very low sunspot activity. Global warming alarmists seem to believe they have 20-20 foresight to predict catastrophic warming using grossly inaccurate computer models. These climate models have generally predicted temperatures that are 300 percent greater than the actual temperature they are supposed to be predicting. For more information on this potential cold cycle see my article in the 2016 Winter Issue of Range magazine.

Dr. Michael Coffman

 

 

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtmlhttps://www.climate.gov/enso