Hot Air
II – The National Climate Assessment
Michael S. Coffman, Ph.D.
July 15, 2014
“They'll
find various ways, particularly in the House, to try to stop us from using the
authority we have under the Clean Air Act. All I would say is that those have
zero percent chance of working. We're committed to moving forward with those
rules.” White House Counselor John Podesta,
May 6, 2014
DESPITE
ALL THE HOT AIR emanating from the IPCC warning the earth is coming to an end
unless we give up civilization, most nations are not paying much attention.
Except one; the USA. President Obama and his hell-bent for destruction EPA hang
onto every alarmist word uttered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) as the gospel from on high. The EPA is implementing draconian
regulations (not legislation) to implement the IPCC’s self-ordained god-like wisdom.
What is most disturbing, they are doing it without one shred of empirical
scientific evidence. After dissecting the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Working Group’s
reports issued in the fall of 2013 and in February this year, (See Hot
Air I) it is obvious that the IPCC has moved from using pseudoscience in
its Summary for Policy Makers to a highly politicized jumble of half-truths, hyperbole
and outright lying. It should be no surprise then that President Obama’s
800+ page “National Climate Assessment” has only minimal connection to
scientific fact. It dwells almost entirely in a swirling matrix of outright
lies and propaganda, with only an occasional connection to reality.
The National Climate
Assessment (NCA) is so bad that sixteen world renowned climate scientists wrote
a scathing letter criticizing it. The letter began by claiming: The National
Climate Assessment…is a masterpiece of marketing that shows for the first time
the full capabilities of the Obama Administration to spin a scientific topic as
they see fit, without regard to the underlying facts. With hundreds of pages
written by hundreds of captive scientists and marketing specialists, the
administration presents their case for extreme climate alarm… The problem with
their theory is very simple: It is NOT true. (Emphasis original)
These scientists were
not the only ones highly critical of the NCA. John Coleman, cofounder of the
Weather Channel letter was so scathing that it borders on being unprintable: I am deeply disturbed to have to
suffer through this total distortion of the data and agenda driven, destructive
episode of bad science gone berserk…based on a theory that the increase in the
atmosphere from the exhaust from the burning of fossil fuels leads to a
dramatic increase in ‘the greenhouse effect’ causing temperatures to skyrocket uncontrollably.
This theory has failed to verify and is obviously dead wrong. But the politically
funded and agenda driven scientists who have built their careers on this theory
and live well on the $2.6 billion dollars a year of Federal grants for global
warming, climate change, research cling to this theory and bend the data spread
to support the glorified claims in their reports and papers.”
Dr.
Roy Spencer agrees: the facts in the Assessment are “just simply made up,…there
is no fingerprint of human-caused versus naturally-caused climate change.” Spencer
was formerly Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA’s Marshall
Space Flight Center and received NASA’s Exceptional Scientific
Achievement Medal for their global temperature monitoring work with satellites. The
NCA left no horrifying potential climate extreme unreported;
rising temperatures, increasing numbers and severity of tornadoes, hurricanes,
flooding, droughts, disease, crop failures, killer heat waves, bitter winters,
increased forest fires and much more. The Assessment stopped
short of actually attributing extreme weather to human activity, but the
average reader would
totally miss that technical nuance. “It is not a distant threat,” warns Obama’s
Science Advisor Dr. John Holdren, “it is affecting the American people
already.” President Obama has even tweeted
that “97% of scientists agree:#climate change is real, man-made
and dangerous.”
White House counselor
John Podesta said on May 6 that the report clearly
shows that there “is no debate” about climate change. Deniers, he said, are “working
themselves in a froth.” Yet, it’s the Obama administration that is apparently running
scared, as most of the Assessment is disconnected from reality.
Disconnect
from Reality
The National Climate
Assessment is long on emotion and extremely short on hard facts to support the
premise that the earth suffers from man-caused global warming. There is even less
evidence than what was in the IPCC’s AR5 report that unless we do something to
stop it, every horror imaginable will soon be upon us. First among the
fairytale claims is Obama’s claim that 97 percent of all scientists agree
mankind is causing global warming. The study at the root of the 97 percent
claim originated with John Cook, an Australian blogger/warming activist and founder of the blog
site “Skeptical Science.” Cook and his colleagues claimed that
97 percent of 12,000 peer-reviewed scientific articles “endorsed the consensus
position that humans are causing global warming.” In doing so, Cook excluded
about 8000 of the 12,000 papers in his sample on the grounds that they had
expressed no opinion on the climate consensus whatsoever. Those 8,000 papers
were not included in Cook’s calculations of the 97 percent, yet he
did include them as if they were part of the 97 percent.
Of the remaining
4,000 articles, any mention of man-caused warming was treated as if the
authors believed man was responsible—including many articles
written by skeptics. Most skeptics readily include a caveat that a small part of the measured
warming might be caused by mankind, but not to the extent of what
alarmists claim. Yet, Cook included them as if they actually endorsed
man-caused global warming, when the paper overall provided strong evidence man
was not causing global warming. Out of the 12,000 articles only
65 specifically stated man could cause the warming. Of that
65, 23 were written by skeptics providing the weak caveat
that man could cause some warming, but not most of it. That left only 41
papers, or 0.3 percent, that explicitly said that man has caused most
of the warming. The rest of the 4000 merely mentioned it in some way.
Ironically, 78 papers specifically claimed that man had no significant
impact!
This is not science.
At best it is garbage pseudoscience. At worst, it is lie to support blatant
propaganda. It worked. With the help of the activist media, the 97% was
headlined around the world and most people believe it is a fact. This is a massive
and totally dishonest disconnect from reality. Hot Air I discussed
hard evidence that there has been no warming for nearly eighteen years now. The
climate models show the temperature should have increased 0.5oF in
the same time period. It has not, and the alarmist scientists have frantically
tried to explain where the heat went. Their best explanation is that the heat
somehow traveled to the deep ocean—without any plausible mechanism of how that
could possibly happen. They have been spectacularly unsuccessful and they still
remain disconnected from reality today.
In spite of this, the National Climate Assessment says the 18 year
lack of warming is merely a “short-term” pause. The Assessment conveniently
doesn’t mention the fact the most recent warming started in 1978 and ended in
1997; a 19 year period. Why does 19 years of warming prove man is causing the
warming, but 17 years of no warming does not prove that there is no warming,
but merely a pause? The assessment even gives the impression that temperatures
are still rising; a blatant lie and another disconnect from reality. Then there
are the claims in the Assessment that we are witnessing climate extremes today.
Yet, climatologist Rodger
Pielke Jr. confirms
that “the five-year period ending 2013 has seen 2 hurricane landfalls. That is
a record low since 1900…There is no evidence to support more or more intense US
hurricanes. The data actually suggests much the opposite.”Likewise for
tornadoes. 2014 is shaping up to have a record low number of tornadoes. Pielke
Jr. states “with some certainty is that the number of years with very large
tornado losses has actually decreased. Consider that from 1950 to 1970 the U.S.
saw 15 years with tornado damage in excess of $5 billion a year. From 1993 to
2013 there were only four such years, with three since 2008.” Once again, the Assessment
is disconnected from reality. Then there is the proclaimed threat of coastal flooding
due to rising sea levels. An interesting new paper in Global
and Planetary Change 113: 11- 22 by S. Jevrejeva andcolleagues found that a
renewed global sea level reconstruction using monthly mean sea level data
collected by the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level showed “a linear trend of
1.9 ± 0.3 mm/yr. during the 20th century" and "1.8 ± 0.5 mm/yr.
for the period 1970- 2008.” Simply stated, the hyped claim that the rate sea level
is accelerating due toice melt is false. Another disconnect from reality. Which
brings the discussion to the alarming rhetoric in the NCA that we should expect
increasing deaths in the elderly due to more extreme heat waves. This false
claim is especially disturbing because the scientific literature is
full of studies that clearly show that the population’s sensitivity to extreme
heat is decreasing, resulting in lower rates of people dying during heat waves.
One Harvard study found that the risk in the older
population has dropped so far that it is now indistinguishable from the risk to
the younger populations. The claim that the elderly face mounting deaths from
heat waves is not only false, it is a deliberate lie.
The Assessment goes
on to describe many more supposed sever consequences to global warming. Very
few have any merit. Like those cited above, it is pure conjecture disconnected from
reality, or just plain lies. It is astonishing that the Obama administration
can claim their allegations are true, even become incensed whenever anyone challenges them, and keep a
straight face while doing so. The one thing that is becoming clear within the
administration is their lying; be it Fast and Furious, threats against the AP
and James Rosen of Fox News, Benghazi, the IRS, and of course, the real whopper,
Obamacare. Climate change can now be added to the list.
Just What
is Extreme?
There is a separate concern
with the Assessment that is also deeply troubling. It treats every extreme weather
event (floods, hurricanes, tornadoes,
etc.) as climate change. It takes years of weather events to even begin to
define climate or climate change. Weather is
made up of extremes as well as small year-to-year variations. A three
foot snowfall in Minnesota may be unusual, but it’s not extreme. The same event
in Southern Alabama would be extreme, but not indicative of climate change.
Risk of exposure to an extreme weather event has more to do with where you live
than any gradual increase in temperature.
The number of violent
tornadoes (greater than F3) has declined since the first half of the 20th century,
not increased as the NCA claims. Red line is the statistical trend line showing
a decline of nearly 40 percent. Ironically, the 2014 tornado season is shaping
up to be a record low season for violent tornadoes. Source: NOAA Mean sea level
declines and increases since 1800s. Sea levels declined during the Little Ice
Age, then increased at a steady rate following the peak of the Dalton Minimum
in the 1850s. There has been no acceleration in rising sea levels in recent
history that gives credence to the projection by the National Climate
Assessment of an increase of 1 to 4 feet in this century. If anything there has
been a slight decline. Source: After Jevrejeva, S., et. al. 2014. Trends and acceleration
in global and regional sea levels since 1807. Global and Planetary Change 113:
11-22. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/05/20/new-study-finds-sea-levels-rising-only-7-inper-
century-with-no-acceleration/4
We have become the “Chicken
Little,” the “Sky is Falling,” society. This is not just a disconnect from
reality, but a blatant attempt to equate “weather” with “climate change” in the
minds of the American people. By doing so, every unusual weather event has
become another headline example of extreme climate change. The federal
government is already doing that. Hurricane Sandy is now accepted as an example
of extreme weather resulting from climate change. In fact, Sandy wasn’t even a hurricane
when it came ashore and would have been uneventful except the wind and super
high tide combined into a super storm. It wasn’t even unique, as the same
combination of weather and tide events had occurred several times in the 200
years preceding Sandy. There just weren’t as
many people living in
the hard-hit areas a hundred years ago and the media at that time was not
possessed by agenda-driven progressive group-think mentality.Finally, the question
could be asked, “why even bother?”
Even if all carbon
dioxide-emitting vehicles, power plants, and factories in the U.S. would be
immediately and totally shutdown, it would only decrease global warming by a hypothetical
and undetectable three-tenths of a degree Fahrenheit by 2100. Over
half of the carbon emissions today come from China and India, which are
opening a new CO2 and pollution-belching coal-fired power plant every week. It is
absurd to imply, as the report does, that the Obama administration’s climate
policies can provide any measurable protection from extreme weather
events or have any long term reductions of earth’s temperature. To make that
claim is not only a disconnect from reality, it is insane. The
Assessment is clearly designed to make the uninformed reader believe that earth
is doomed unless we take drastic action immediately. That is exactly what the
report is designed to do—scare people senseless, with absolutely no facts to
back up their outrageous claims. It is scaremongering at its worst.
Fortunately, poll after poll shows that while most Americans still believe man
is causing global warming, they place concern for climate change at the bottom
of their list of priorities. That is why the NCA is so over the top alarmists.
It is a blatant attempt to scare Americans into supporting Obama’s draconian
effort to put carbon emissions under the
control of the federal government, and by doing so, control the economic
engine of the U.S. In the process, the Assessment and the alarmist scientists who
support it are making a mockery of real science that will harm credible
scientific evidence on anything for decades to come. Until the Obama
administration took over, scientists promoting man-caused warming at least
tried to root their conclusions in plausibility. No more. With the IPCC’s AR5 Summary
for Policy Makers and Obama’s National Climate Assessment, all pretense of
credible science has been abandoned for outright lies and hyperbole.
The National
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has been shown to be cooking
the books on temperature data that it provides to the rest of the world. By using an algorithm
allegedly “improving” the data, the algorithm actually reduced the U.S.
temperature data in the first half of the twentieth century by 0.8oF
and increased it slightly for the 21st century,
giving a false result of so-called man-caused global warming. If lies and
hyperbole was all there was to Obama’s National Climate Assessment, it would be
frustrating, but not dangerous to the American people. However, the EPA is using
those lies and pseudoscience as justification for slashing
carbon emissions allegedly to minimize non-existent man-caused global warming. This
sojourn by the EPA into never, never land will produce incalculable
damage to the U.S. economy. Some analysts believe it is being done
deliberately, while others believe it is the result of delusional ideology. It
doesn’t matter which one is true, or whether it is a combination of both. The proposed
regulations are extremely destructive and can very well put the U.S. into an
economic death spiral from which would take years to recover, even if
Republican conservatives capture the U.S. Senate in November. Things may become
so dire that the only solution is to stop the EPA dead in its tracks, which
would be impossible as long as Obama is still president. If the EPA does impose
these draconian regulations, it is up to all of us to raise our voices with the
truth about global warming and demand that the EPA rescind their onerous regulations
that are not justified by facts, but by hot air with no connection to reality.
Support those who are leading in this battle. Our very future is at stake.
About the
Photo
About the
Author
Dr. Coffman is President of
Environmental Perspectives
Incorporated (epi-us.com) and CEO
of Sovereignty International
(sovereignty.net) in Bangor
Maine. He has had over 30 years of
university teaching,
research and consulting experience in
forestry and environmental
sciences. He produced the acclaimed
DVD Global Warming,
Emerging Science (emergingscience.com).
His newest books, Plundered,
How Progressive Ideology is
Destroying
America and Radical Islam at the Door In the House
(AmericaPlundered.com) are
receiving wide acclaim. He can be
reached at 207-945-9878 or mcoffman@epi-us.com